Friday, January 11, 2019

Ancedote Are More Salient Than Data

It is quite possible that you may know someone whose life was saved by not wearing a seat belt. Perhaps they were thrown clear in an accident and walked away.

However in the vast majority of instances, wearing a seatbelt will save your life.

The saying is that anecdotes are more salient than data. In other words, singular stories capture our imaginations better than vast quantities of stories compiled together. So don't make your decisions based on that one story you heard (anecdote). Look at the vast quantity of compiled stories (data) and make a decision that puts the odds more in your favor.

Wear your seatbelt. 

I just had a conversation with someone about immigration. We were not talking about the big metal fence, or even the best way to secure the border. We were simply discussing the fact that crime rates among immigrants, legal and illegal, are lower than crime rates among natives. (Obviously not counting immigration-related crimes here. We're talking about serious crimes).

This means that the per-capita crime rate falls when immigration happens. This is because, frankly, more future crime victims are entering the country than perpetrators. I hate thinking about it that way, but it's true. Therefore, when immigration happens, natives are safer.

But this fellow's uncle was in a car accident with "an illegal". So that's all that matters. And this fellow doesn't come across as a completely unfeeling, blind Trumpie. But seeing it this was does confirm his broader way of seeing things.

And anecdotes are more salient than data.

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